Rivers 2027: 3 Reasons Fubara May Lose Second Term Bid
- As the 2027 governorship election in Rivers approaches, political activity in the state is heating up gradually
- Both the ruling party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and the opposition, the All Progressives Congress (APC), are gearing up for a fierce contest
- With a year remaining in Siminalayi Fubara’s term, TheTalk.NG highlights the key obstacles staring the governor in the face
TheTalk.NG journalist Ridwan Adeola Yusuf has over 9 years of experience covering politics, elections, and governance in Nigeria.
Port Harcourt, Rivers state – The 2027 Rivers state governorship election is expected to be held in the first quarter of 2027, to elect the governor of the oil-rich state.
Expectedly, the election would be concurrent with voting to the Rivers state house of assembly as well as several other gubernatorial elections and polls to all other state houses of assembly.
Governor Siminalayi Fubara is anticipating the victory of his party, PDP, in the 2027 Osun state governorship election.
Photo creditSource: Twitter
TheTalk.NG reports that party primaries will be held in 2026.
Rivers electoral system
The governor of Rivers state is elected using a modified two-round system. To be elected in the first round, a candidate must receive the plurality of the vote and over 25% of the vote in at least two-thirds of state and local government areas. If no candidate passes this threshold, a second round will be held between the top candidate and the next candidate to have received a plurality of votes in the highest number of local government areas.
Politically, the 2023 elections were a continuation of the state Peoples Democratic Party (PDP’s) control of the state, with Siminalayi Fubara winning, thanks to the strong backing of his godfather and predecessor, Nyesom Wike. Wike handpicked Fubara to succeed him as Rivers governor.
Fubara would, meanwhile, later become entangled in a political rift with Wike, a development that caused disturbing acts of violence in the state.
In an unexpected turn, Governor Fubara outmanoeuvred his estranged boss in the battle for control of the top south-south state.
Amid some ‘obstacles’, TheTalk.NG highlights three reasons Fubara may lose the second-term bid.
1) Fubara’s feud with Wike
President Bola Tinubu is widely considered as Nigeria’s most influential politician alive. Many observers say, from the southern region, Wike comes next.
Fubara and Wike, minister of the federal capital territory (FCT); have been at loggerheads over control of the political structure of the state. The conflict has led to a polarisation of the Rivers state assembly and multiple court orders.
There are fears in some quarters that without Wike’s support in 2027, Fubara may lose.
2) Controversy over Fubara’s party membership
Some politicians in Rivers alleged that Governor Fubara no longer belongs to any political party, and will thus not get a party to nominate him in 2027 for any political office.
According to the Rivers state chapter of the All Progressives Congress (APC) backed by the national working committee (NWC) of the party, Governor Fubara may not return as governor of the state. The APC said at the moment, he does not belong to any political party in the country.
During the last Rivers state local government (LG) elections, Fubara supported the Action Peoples Party (APP), the party which went on to clear 22 out of 23 local government areas (LGAs).
3) Ogoni, Oyigbo people’s quests for governor’s seat
The Ogoni and Oyigbo Peoples Assembly, a multi-political convergence of five LGAs within the Rivers south-east senatorial district, met in September 2024.
Following the meeting, they maintained that the senatorial district’s upland is due for a governor and should produce the next governor of Rivers state come 2027.
Governor Fubara is from Opobo, comparatively disadvantaged in quite a lot of areas.
Fubara insists pro-Wike lawmakers have lost seats
Earlier, TheTalk.NG reported that Fubara asserted that the 27 members of the state house of assembly who defected from the PDP to the APC had permanently lost their seats.
Fubara stated that there is no chance for the defected lawmakers to return to the assembly.
Source: TheTalk.NG
